Visible Alpha
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 3 brokers · 360 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-14.
Only three brokers publish full models on Herbalife, and what they add beyond the headline is not the top line but the balance sheet. On these models revenue compounds in the low single digits while net debt falls from about $1.6bn in FY-2025 to roughly $0.2bn in FY-2028, taking net debt/EBITDA from 2.4x to 0.2x. Gross margin is modeled flat near 77.9%, so the FY-2027 earnings step-up comes from operating leverage and a shrinking interest bill rather than from pricing at the product level. Where the three diverge is not revenue but what that revenue earns.
Three brokers at peak, and the segment and volume lines are one- or two-broker views
Peak coverage in this feed is three brokers and the last consensus update is 2026-07-14. Regional revenue, net debt and free cash flow carry two brokers; the volume-point and price/mix bridge is a single model. Product-category revenue was last revised 2023-08-03 and is excluded from this tab.
Deleveraging is the modeled story: net debt/EBITDA from 2.4x in FY-2025 to 0.2x in FY-2028
Free cash flow steps up in FY-2026 and then holds, and that step-up is what funds the paydown. The interest line is how it reaches EPS. The FY-2028 point rests on two brokers, one of whom has the company in a net cash position by then.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net debt | $1.60bn | $1.17bn | $712.75m | $201.69m | -26.5% | 2 |
| Net debt / EBITDA, TTM(x) | 2.45 Ratio | 1.71 Ratio | 0.99 Ratio | 0.25 Ratio | -30.3% | 2 |
| Interest expense - Non-operating | $205.36m | $190.44m | $136.32m | $151.60m | -7.3% | 3 |
| Cash generation | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow (FCF) | $281.52m | $459.05m | $460.10m | $511.05m | +63.1% | 2 |
| Free cash flow (FCF) per share($) | $2.72 | $4.27 | $4.31 | $4.80 | +57.0% | 2 |
| FCF margin(%) | 5.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | +3.1pt | 2 |
Latin America is the modeled growth engine, up 11% in FY-2026 while EMEA is flat
Asia Pacific is the largest region and adds the most dollars, but Latin America compounds fastest in every modeled year. China is the telling negative: revenue falls again in FY-2026 before a modeled recovery, and that line has not been revised since 2026-05-07.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total revenue | $4.99bn | $5.24bn | $5.37bn | $5.59bn | +5.0% | 3 |
| Region | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total revenue - Latin America | $864.86m | $962.55m | $1.00bn | $1.04bn | +11.3% | 2 |
| Total revenue - Asia Pacific | $1.71bn | $1.86bn | $1.89bn | $1.96bn | +8.7% | 2 |
| Total revenue - North America | $1.04bn | $1.05bn | $1.09bn | $1.13bn | +1.4% | 2 |
| Total revenue - EMEA | $1.10bn | $1.10bn | $1.13bn | $1.16bn | +0.0% | 2 |
| Total revenue - China | $280.41m | $264.21m | $272.16m | $283.02m | -5.8% | 2 |
The modeled top line is price, not volume: 2.7pp of FY-2026 growth is price/mix, 0.8pp volume
Volume points rise about 1% a year while growth ex-FX runs near 3%. For a business whose distributor base sets volume, that gap is the load-bearing assumption. It is also the thinnest evidence on this page: the volume and price/mix bridge comes from a single broker.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Volume points(M#) | 5.55bn Number | 5.60bn Number | 5.65bn Number | 5.71bn Number | +0.8% | 1 |
| Growth bridge | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Volume impact(%) | -0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | +1.1pt | 1 |
| Price / Mix Impact(%) | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | +0.8pt | 1 |
| Total growth exl. Fx(%) | 1.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | +1.8pt | 2 |
| Fx impact(%) | -1.5% | 0.5% | -0.2% | 0.0% | +2.0pt | 2 |
Brokers agree on FY-2027 revenue and split hard on what it earns
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | FY-2027E | $5.36bn | $5.35bn–$5.39bn | $5.35bn–$5.41bn | 3 |
| EPS Diluted, Applicable to common stockholders, Operating($) | FY-2027E | $3.08 | $2.82–$3.15 | $2.55–$3.23 | 3 |
| Interest expense - Non-operating | FY-2027E | $121.00m | $110.88m–$154.10m | $100.77m–$187.20m | 3 |
| Operating margin(%) | FY-2027E | 10.5% | 10.4%–10.9% | 10.2%–11.3% | 3 |
The margin bend is opex leverage, not gross margin
Gross margin sits near 77.9% in both FY-2025 and FY-2028 with no modeled trend, while OpEx/Sales falls from 67.7% to 66.7% and operating margin rises from 10.2% to 11.2%. The FY-2028 OpEx/Sales point is one broker, so treat the final leg as a single model's view rather than a consensus.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.